Fate of erozone

2015年1月13日

【明報專訊】GREECE, the epicentre of the debt crisis Europe saw three years ago, has again drawn European and global attention. Because the parties having seats in its legislature have failed to elect a president, its government must go to the country. The results of the general election will come out on January 25. However, because the Greek legislature has had difficulty electing a president, the jitters have plunged the euro to a nine-year low. Syriza, which advocates lifting austerity measures, has done quite well in opinion polls. The Europeans have come to be worried that, if Syriza comes to power, Greece may abandon its austerity measures and eventually leave the eurozone. When the first domino topples, the "great Europe" dream will fall through, and a grave economic crisis will come.

It must be pointed out that it rests with the Greek people to determine their country's fate. How Greece may fare is in their hands. Greece's departure from the eurozone may not matter much because the country accounts only for a mere 2% of its total GDP. However, it may bring about a chain effect. That is a real economic worry of Europe and the world, for, if a precedent is set, Portugal, whose economy was in difficulty like Greece's, may follow suit. What may become of Spain and Italy then is the key issue. Of the four European "economic invalids", Italy, a member of the Group of 7, is the weightiest. And Spain is not to be made light of. Both have been reported to intend to leave the eurozone. In such an event, the eurozone will exist in name only.

It concerns not just one country or region for a major currency zone to collapse. Money flowing in it, the world is in trouble when the eurozone is in trouble. In analysts' eyes, Greece's departure from the eurozone is already "inevitable". Therefore, Germany, a leading member of the eurozone, has been making adequate preparations. In particular, it has given it out that it can absorb the blow. Even so, Germany must adapt itself. The reason is that, if Greece leaves the eurozone, the economic losses the German taxpayer alone will sustain may amount to 80 billion euros. The "big Europe" dream the country has been trying to build up over the years will receive a severe blow and may even collapse.

According to the above, a crisis may arise not so much because the "economic Europe" may receive a blow as because the future of the "political Europe" may be clouded. The "political Europe" has come of the currents of the 1960s, when West European countries sought to rely on themselves instead of the US. Because of the reunification of West Germany and East Germany in 1990, the "political Europe" has had higher expectations of itself. The episode culminated in the establishment of the eurozone. However, as they have different aims, eurozone members are strange bedfellows. Disparities in national strength and progress have led to other problems. It is mainly Germany that has maintained the whole situation.

One may say this year is crucial to Europe. Not only may it see the eurozone disintegrate, but it will also see general elections in many European countries, including the UK, Spain, Portugal, Finland and Denmark. Eurozone membership will figure prominently in those elections. In particular, David Cameron, prime minister of the UK, the bellwether, has said the country should consider leaving the European Union. That may deal a severe blow to European stability. Europe is not exactly in the midst of a raging storm. However, that it is in deep trouble is beyond dispute. 

明報社評2015.01.12﹕希臘政局衝擊歐元區 歐洲夢將醒牽動全球

3年前歐債危機主角希臘再次成為歐洲及全球焦點，由於議會內各黨派無法選出總統，需要解散議會舉行大選，本月25號將有分曉。不過，此前由於議會選舉總統難產，令到歐元飽吃驚風散，直線下挫，見9年新低，如今力主撤銷緊縮政策的「激進左翼聯盟」（Syriza）在民意調查被看好，歐洲開始憂心，一旦Syriza上台，有可能會放棄緊縮政策，最終脫離歐元區，推翻第一隻骨牌，大歐洲夢漸次幻滅，引發巨大經濟危機。

必須指出，希臘未來如何，是希臘人民的決定；是吉是凶，皆在於自己之手。然而，西方尤其是歐盟擔心的是，希臘一旦退出歐元區，儘管影響不會太大，因為希臘經濟規模只佔歐元區的2%，但由此引發的連鎖效應，才是歐洲以及世界經濟的憂慮。因為此例一開，當年與希臘同屬經濟陷於困境的葡萄牙，有可能亦步亦趨；而之後的西班牙及意大利何去何從，始是重點。論經濟規模，這4個歐洲「經濟病友」，當以名列西方七大工業國之一的意大利體型最龐大，西班牙亦不可小覷，兩國都曾經傳出有意退出歐元區，若然局勢發展至此，歐元區名存實亡。

當全球的主要貨幣區崩解，不僅是一個地區一個國家的事，在今天資金流動的世界，歐元區出事就等於全球出事。希臘退出歐元區，在分析家眼中已是「很難避免」的事，因此歐元區大國的德國正做足鋪墊，包括放出風聲稱「可以承受」衝擊。即便如此，德國也須自我調適，因為希臘退出歐元區，單是德國納稅人便要承受800億歐元的經濟損失，而其多年以來一直建構的大歐洲夢想，更會遭到極大打擊，甚至可能分崩離析。

依前所述，危機不全在於「經濟歐洲」的受到衝擊，更是「政治歐洲」的未來陰霾重重。政治歐洲是1960年代出現的西歐脫離美國自立的大潮，1990年代初，西德東德合併，帶來更大的政治歐洲自我期許，以歐元區的成立為最高峰。不過，畢竟各國各有打算，同牀異夢者眾，國力不同、發展差異也帶來另一種煩惱，全靠德國頂住大局。

今年對歐洲來說，堪稱是關鍵的一年，除了歐元區是合是分，還有不少國家將會舉行大選，包括英國、西班牙、葡萄牙、芬蘭及丹麥。初步觀察，歐洲將這選戰的重要議題，尤其是領頭羊的英國，首相卡梅倫表示考慮退出歐盟，構成另一股對歐洲穩定的衝擊力量。此刻的歐洲雖未至於風雨飄搖，但煩惱滿身則是不爭事實。

■Glossary

go to the country﹕hold an election to choose a new parliament

invalid﹕person enfeebled or disabled by illness or injury

bellwether﹕one that takes the lead or initiative